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Objectives:

Strategies developed to improve forecasting and reduce the impact of migrant pests in semi-arid cropping systems, for benefit of poor people.

Background:

Farmers, District Agricultural Officers, chemical suppliers, extension officers, a pesticide registration officer and district agricultural managers were involved in developing the ideas which underpin the community-based forecasting approach. An initial socioeconomic survey assessed whether farmers were interested in carrying out their own armyworm forecasting and in what way they are willing to respond to forecasts, either local or national. Participatory methods were used in the pilot studies and during the first year, traps were successfully operated and forecasts made by all the participating villages. A forecasting pack in both Kiswahili and English was produced to accompany training. This included basic information about armyworms and how they can be forecast, instructions on how to operate the pheromone trap, the rain gauge, and how to record and interpret the data to make the forecast. In the five pilot study villages forecasting accuracy has so far been good and one key outcome was that farmers tended to become aware of armyworm infestations in their fields at an earlier stage.

Intended Outputs:

Community-based armyworm forecasting implemented in 5 villages in Kenya. New implementation lessons learnt.

CBF accuracy determined. Simplified forecast developed.

Longer term impact of CBF evaluated. Lessons for sustainable implementation and for scale-up.

Stakeholder value of community-based forecasting. Economic model for potential for CBF in new situations.

Policy document on principles of CBF. Key features that are needed to make it a success.